China’s swine herd may have been reduced by 50-percent, as a result of the outbreak and continued spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) virus.
The results have not been evident yet in buying of United States pork products, but an economist says the fourth quarter should reveal the extreme need for pork in China.
Arlan Suderman is chief commodities economist with INTL FCStone. Several months ago, he said China’s pork supply had been cut by as much as 40-percent. Most of the industry was then guessing 10- to 20-percent. Now it looks like Suderman’s number may have underestimated the loss.
Not all growers were hit with the disease. Many sold their pigs as soon as there was an outbreak in their area and those who had large numbers of sows were disproportionately damaged and resulted in fewer births of pigs that would become market ready.
Suderman spoke to me about his current knowledge of the Chinese pork crisis and a projection of what may come later this year.