Markets eye upcoming Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

IARN — The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that the USDA is set to release at 11 a.m. Central Time on Thursday.

On the corn side, analysts are reportedly expecting 2020/2021 carryout to be around 1.153 billion bushels. USDA’s September WASDE estimate was 1.187 billion bushels, and September 2020 stocks were 1.919. Estimates for soybean carry-in from the 2020/2021 season are 174 million bushels. The September WASDE estimated soybean stocks would be 175 million bushels.

Greg McBride is a commodity broker with Allendale, Inc.

“One of the things you have to remember is that if this number comes in drastically above or below what the September WASDE report was, then that can move the needle for this new crop,” said McBride. “One of the things we’ll be watching is did we miss on exports by enough for them to warrant maybe increasing those stocks numbers for the last old crop number. That could roll into the beginning stocks for the new crop as we move into the October USDA report.”

McBride discusses some of his expectations for Thursday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report.

“I actually don’t think we’ll see major movement on this one,” said McBride. “We know that we missed on exports for soybeans and corn for the old crop, so we’ll see a little bit of an adjustment there. Maybe also on the crush side of things for soybeans as we did miss a little bit there and ethanol we missed a little bit for corn. Maybe slightly higher than what was represented on the September WASDE report. The biggest thing and wildcard when it comes to USDA – especially with these Quarterly Grain Stocks reports – is that they can go back and make changes to previous years. That’s one of those wildcards that no one has the ability to perceive what’s going to happen with that.”

IARN will provide a full recap of the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report after it’s released late Thursday morning. The team at Allendale can be reached by calling 800-262-7538, or you can visit allendale-inc.com.

McBride’s full comments can be heard on Dustin Hoffmann’s Opening Market Podcast posted Monday morning.

Story courtesy of the Iowa Agribusiness Radio Network.

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