Omaha, Nebraska — As we head into the final two months of 2024, typically the busiest months of the year for many retailers, a survey of business leaders in Iowa and eight other Midwestern states points to a looming economic downturn.
Creighton University economist Ernie Goss says the Business Conditions Index grades the region’s economy on a zero-to-100 scale, with 50 being growth neutral. It’s risen slightly from around 48 in September to 51 in October, just barely into growth territory.
Goss says supply managers remain pessimistic about the economic outlook, with many expecting a recession, or a sharp dropoff in the next six months. He says the region’s employment index slumped below growth neutral for the 10th straight month in October.
The Creighton survey found four in ten Midwestern supply managers named supply chain disruptions as the top challenge to their firm over the next year, and Goss says interest rates are a key factor.
Iowa’s overall number fell from around 43 in September to 48 in October, still below growth neutral and still “weak,” according to Goss. The latest U.S. International Trade Administration data finds Iowa’s manufacturing sector saw a drop in 2024 year-to-date exports of 954 million dollars from the same period in 2023, a drop of more than eight percent.
