Omaha, Nebraska — Creighton University economist Ernie Goss says the Midwestern agricultural sector is now in a “significant recession,” and the region’s economic picture is lagging. Creighton’s monthly survey of business leaders and supply managers in Iowa and eight other states finds the overall Business Conditions Index fell below growth neutral during September — for the fifth time this year.
On a scale of zero-to-100, a score of 50 is considered growth neutral, and the Midwest economy showed a score of just over 48 last month. Iowa’s score was even lower, dropping about a point from August to just above 43 for September, indicating the state’s economy is significantly slowing. Goss says the survey asked about the biggest roadblocks that lie ahead for the region’s manufacturers.
Other challenges they mentioned include continued high interest rates and China’s threatened invasion of Taiwan. With America’s general election just over a month away, we’re hearing a lot about whether the economy is in a recession. From his standpoint, Goss says it’s a complicated answer.
The survey shows the region’s employment index slumped below growth neutral for a ninth straight month, while looking forward, supply managers expect input prices to rise more than six percent over the next year. According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report, Iowa lost 3,800 manufacturing jobs, or about two-and-a-half percent, so far in 2024.
